One forward signal · fully transparent

Nowcast

Several leading indicators normalize and weight into a single forward read — expansion, caution, or contraction — with every component's contribution shown. Edit any value to stress-test the call.

Stephen Moore · Economist · America's Future 80th Anniversary App Suite

Composite signal

CAUTION

-0.11

contractioncautionexpansion

Components

Σ weights = 1.00

  • Yield curve (10y–3m)

    Inversion (negative spread) has led recessions; a steep curve is expansionary. Flat-but-positive here.

    pts-0.27
    -0.07 ctr

  • Initial jobless claims

    Rising claims signal a cooling labor market — higher is worse. Still low, a steadying plus.

    k/wk+0.08
    +0.02 ctr

  • Manufacturing PMI

    Above 50 indicates expansion in factory activity; below 50 contraction. Hovering just under.

    index-0.08
    -0.02 ctr

  • Consumer sentiment

    Households spend ahead of confidence; softer sentiment leads slower demand.

    index-0.12
    -0.02 ctr

  • Housing starts

    New construction is rate-sensitive and leads the broader cycle. Slightly soft.

    k SAAR-0.13
    -0.02 ctr

Illustrative composite — every input and weight is on the table. A component's contribution is its normalized signal times its share of the total weight. Not official forecasting.

Computation log

nowcast.compute
$ nowcast compute --transparent
Yield curve (10y–3m)        signal=-0.27  w=0.25  contrib=-0.07
Initial jobless claims      signal=+0.08  w=0.20  contrib=+0.02
Manufacturing PMI           signal=-0.08  w=0.20  contrib=-0.02
Consumer sentiment          signal=-0.12  w=0.20  contrib=-0.02
Housing starts              signal=-0.13  w=0.15  contrib=-0.02
composite score = -0.11  (Σweights=1.00)
regime = CAUTION